Então, infelizmente isso ainda não é verdade.
Apenas postei isto para mostrar um exemplo de como os dados sem uma análise bem feita podem levar a conclusões precipitadas, para não dizer direcionadas.
E também para mostrar que o pensamento científico e crítico tem que funcionar sempre, mesmo quando os resultados seriam favoráveis às nossas opiniões
Grifo de Daniel Sottomaior
"O ESTADO DE S. PAULO, 22-03-2011
ESTUDO INDICA QUE RELIGIÃO PODE SER EXTINTA EM 9 PAÍSES RICOS
Uma pesquisa baseada em dados do censo e projeções de nove países ricos constatou que a religião poderá ser extinta nessas nações.
Cientistas analisaram dados colhidos desde o século 19
Analisando censos colhidos desde o século 19, o estudo identificou uma tendência de aumento no número de pessoas que afirma não ter religião na Austrália, Áustria, Canadá, República Checa, Finlândia, Irlanda, Holanda, Nova Zelândia e Suíça.
Através de um modelo de progressão matemática, o estudo, divulgada em um encontro da American Physical Society, na cidade americana de Dallas, indica que o número de pessoas com religião vai praticamente deixar de existir nestes países.
''Em muitas democracias seculares modernas, há uma crescente tendência de pessoas que se identificam como não tendo uma religião; na Holanda, o índice foi de 40%, e o mais elevado foi o registrado na República Checa, que chegou a 60%'', afirmou Richard Wiener, da Research Corporation for Science Advancement, do departamento de física da Universidade do Arizona.
O estudo projetou que na Holanda, por exemplo, até 2050, 70% dos holandeses não estarão seguindo religião alguma.
Modelo
A pesquisa seguiu um modelo de dinâmica não-linear que tenta levar em conta fatores sociais que influenciam uma pessoa a fazer parte de um grupo não-religioso.
A equipe constatou que esses parâmetros eram semelhantes nos vários países pesquisados, resultando na indicação era de que a religião neles está a caminho da extinção.
"É um resultado bastante sugestivo", disse Wiener.
"É interessante que um modelo tão simples analise esses dados...e possa sugerir uma tendência".
"É óbvio que cada indivíduo é bem mais complicado, mas talvez isso se ajuste naturalmente", disse ele. BBC Brasil - Todos os direitos reservados. [i]
http://www.estadao.com.br/noticias/geral,estudo-indica-que-religiao-pode-ser-extinta-em-9-paises-ricos,695510,0.htm
================================================================
Religion may become extinct in nine nations, study says
By Jason Palmer Science and technology reporter, BBC News, Dallas
Half-empty church In the UK, Wales has the highest proportion of religiously "non-affiliated"
A study using census data from nine countries shows that religion there is set for extinction, say researchers.
The study found a steady rise in those claiming no religious affiliation.
The team's mathematical model attempts to account for the interplay between the number of religious respondents and the social motives behind being one.
The result, reported at the American Physical Society meeting in Dallas, US, indicates that religion will all but die out altogether in those countries.
The team took census data stretching back as far as a century from countries in which the census queried religious affiliation: Australia, Austria, Canada, the Czech Republic, Finland, Ireland, the Netherlands, New Zealand and Switzerland.
Nonlinear dynamics is invoked to explain a wide range of physical phenomena in which a number of factors play a part.
One of the team, Daniel Abrams of Northwestern University, put forth a similar model in 2003 to put a numerical basis behind the decline of lesser-spoken world languages.
At its heart is the competition between speakers of different languages, and the "utility" of speaking one instead of another.
"The idea is pretty simple," said Richard Wiener of the Research Corporation for Science Advancement, and the University of Arizona.
"It posits that social groups that have more members are going to be more attractive to join, and it posits that social groups have a social status or utility.
"For example in languages, there can be greater utility or status in speaking Spanish instead of [the dying language] Quechuan in Peru, and similarly there's some kind of status or utility in being a member of a religion or not."
A man fills in a census form Some of the census data the team used date from the 19th century
Dr Wiener continued: "In a large number of modern secular democracies, there's been a trend that folk are identifying themselves as non-affiliated with religion; in the Netherlands the number was 40%, and the highest we saw was in the Czech Republic, where the number was 60%."
The team then applied their nonlinear dynamics model, adjusting parameters for the relative social and utilitarian merits of membership of the "non-religious" category.
They found, in a study published online, that those parameters were similar across all the countries studied, suggesting that similar behaviour drives the mathematics in all of them.
And in all the countries, the indications were that religion was headed toward extinction.
However, Dr Wiener told the conference that the team was working to update the model with a "network structure" more representative of the one at work in the world.
"Obviously we don't really believe this is the network structure of a modern society, where each person is influenced equally by all the other people in society," he said.
However, he told BBC News that he thought it was "a suggestive result".
"It's interesting that a fairly simple model captures the data, and if those simple ideas are correct, it suggests where this might be going.
"Obviously much more complicated things are going on with any one individual, but maybe a lot of that averages out."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-12811197
================================================================
A mathematical model of social group competition with application to the growth of religious non-affiliation
Authors: Daniel M. Abrams, Haley A. Yaple, Richard J. Wiener
(Submitted on 7 Dec 2010 (v1), last revised 14 Jan 2011 (this version, v2))
Abstract: When groups compete for members, the resulting dynamics of human social activity may be understandable with simple mathematical models. Here, we apply techniques from dynamical systems and perturbation theory to analyze a theoretical framework for the growth and decline of competing social groups. We present a new treatment of the competition for adherents between religious and irreligious segments of modern secular societies and compile a new international data set tracking the growth of religious non-affiliation. Data suggest a particular case of our general growth law, leading to clear predictions about possible future trends in society.
http://arxiv.org/abs/1012.1375
[Sinto informar que o modelo é uma simplificação bastante grosseira. Ele assume que qualquer grupo é tão mais atraente quanto mais dominante na população. É claro que isso leva o grupo majoritário a crescer indefinidamente até a extinção dos demais em ritmo exponencial! Se o modelo fosse verdadeiro em uma ampla faixa de valores, o ateísmo estaria extinto há muito tempo.]"
ESTUDO INDICA QUE RELIGIÃO PODE SER EXTINTA EM 9 PAÍSES RICOS
Uma pesquisa baseada em dados do censo e projeções de nove países ricos constatou que a religião poderá ser extinta nessas nações.
Cientistas analisaram dados colhidos desde o século 19
Analisando censos colhidos desde o século 19, o estudo identificou uma tendência de aumento no número de pessoas que afirma não ter religião na Austrália, Áustria, Canadá, República Checa, Finlândia, Irlanda, Holanda, Nova Zelândia e Suíça.
Através de um modelo de progressão matemática, o estudo, divulgada em um encontro da American Physical Society, na cidade americana de Dallas, indica que o número de pessoas com religião vai praticamente deixar de existir nestes países.
''Em muitas democracias seculares modernas, há uma crescente tendência de pessoas que se identificam como não tendo uma religião; na Holanda, o índice foi de 40%, e o mais elevado foi o registrado na República Checa, que chegou a 60%'', afirmou Richard Wiener, da Research Corporation for Science Advancement, do departamento de física da Universidade do Arizona.
O estudo projetou que na Holanda, por exemplo, até 2050, 70% dos holandeses não estarão seguindo religião alguma.
Modelo
A pesquisa seguiu um modelo de dinâmica não-linear que tenta levar em conta fatores sociais que influenciam uma pessoa a fazer parte de um grupo não-religioso.
A equipe constatou que esses parâmetros eram semelhantes nos vários países pesquisados, resultando na indicação era de que a religião neles está a caminho da extinção.
"É um resultado bastante sugestivo", disse Wiener.
"É interessante que um modelo tão simples analise esses dados...e possa sugerir uma tendência".
"É óbvio que cada indivíduo é bem mais complicado, mas talvez isso se ajuste naturalmente", disse ele. BBC Brasil - Todos os direitos reservados. [i]
http://www.estadao.com.br/
==============================
Religion may become extinct in nine nations, study says
By Jason Palmer Science and technology reporter, BBC News, Dallas
Half-empty church In the UK, Wales has the highest proportion of religiously "non-affiliated"
A study using census data from nine countries shows that religion there is set for extinction, say researchers.
The study found a steady rise in those claiming no religious affiliation.
The team's mathematical model attempts to account for the interplay between the number of religious respondents and the social motives behind being one.
The result, reported at the American Physical Society meeting in Dallas, US, indicates that religion will all but die out altogether in those countries.
The team took census data stretching back as far as a century from countries in which the census queried religious affiliation: Australia, Austria, Canada, the Czech Republic, Finland, Ireland, the Netherlands, New Zealand and Switzerland.
Nonlinear dynamics is invoked to explain a wide range of physical phenomena in which a number of factors play a part.
One of the team, Daniel Abrams of Northwestern University, put forth a similar model in 2003 to put a numerical basis behind the decline of lesser-spoken world languages.
At its heart is the competition between speakers of different languages, and the "utility" of speaking one instead of another.
"The idea is pretty simple," said Richard Wiener of the Research Corporation for Science Advancement, and the University of Arizona.
"It posits that social groups that have more members are going to be more attractive to join, and it posits that social groups have a social status or utility.
"For example in languages, there can be greater utility or status in speaking Spanish instead of [the dying language] Quechuan in Peru, and similarly there's some kind of status or utility in being a member of a religion or not."
A man fills in a census form Some of the census data the team used date from the 19th century
Dr Wiener continued: "In a large number of modern secular democracies, there's been a trend that folk are identifying themselves as non-affiliated with religion; in the Netherlands the number was 40%, and the highest we saw was in the Czech Republic, where the number was 60%."
The team then applied their nonlinear dynamics model, adjusting parameters for the relative social and utilitarian merits of membership of the "non-religious" category.
They found, in a study published online, that those parameters were similar across all the countries studied, suggesting that similar behaviour drives the mathematics in all of them.
And in all the countries, the indications were that religion was headed toward extinction.
However, Dr Wiener told the conference that the team was working to update the model with a "network structure" more representative of the one at work in the world.
"Obviously we don't really believe this is the network structure of a modern society, where each person is influenced equally by all the other people in society," he said.
However, he told BBC News that he thought it was "a suggestive result".
"It's interesting that a fairly simple model captures the data, and if those simple ideas are correct, it suggests where this might be going.
"Obviously much more complicated things are going on with any one individual, but maybe a lot of that averages out."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/
==============================
A mathematical model of social group competition with application to the growth of religious non-affiliation
Authors: Daniel M. Abrams, Haley A. Yaple, Richard J. Wiener
(Submitted on 7 Dec 2010 (v1), last revised 14 Jan 2011 (this version, v2))
Abstract: When groups compete for members, the resulting dynamics of human social activity may be understandable with simple mathematical models. Here, we apply techniques from dynamical systems and perturbation theory to analyze a theoretical framework for the growth and decline of competing social groups. We present a new treatment of the competition for adherents between religious and irreligious segments of modern secular societies and compile a new international data set tracking the growth of religious non-affiliation. Data suggest a particular case of our general growth law, leading to clear predictions about possible future trends in society.
http://arxiv.org/abs/1012.1375
[Sinto informar que o modelo é uma simplificação bastante grosseira. Ele assume que qualquer grupo é tão mais atraente quanto mais dominante na população. É claro que isso leva o grupo majoritário a crescer indefinidamente até a extinção dos demais em ritmo exponencial! Se o modelo fosse verdadeiro em uma ampla faixa de valores, o ateísmo estaria extinto há muito tempo.]"
